War is Normal
“Mankind must put an
end to war before war puts an end to mankind.”[1]
-
John F. Kennedy
 |
| Source: Huffington Post |
International relations theorist Kenneth M. Waltz voiced a
strong reflection on the state of international affairs, contending that:
“The recurrence of war is explained
by the structure of the international system. Theorists explain what historians
know: War is normal. Any given war is explained not by looking at the structure
of the international-political system but by looking at the particularities
within it: the situations, the characters, and the interactions of states.”[2]
John Lennon’s pipe dream provides the antithesis for the
international system, imagining a future with no countries, no religion, no possessions,
no greed, and no hunger.[3]
Absent this vision, neorealist theory concludes simply that wars are business
as usual.
Examining Ongoing Conflicts with a Neorealist Lens
Russia’s Aggression
in Ukraine
 |
| Source: NBC News |
The Russian Invasion of Ukraine is best understood within
the context of Vladimir Putin’s fundamental outlook on regional security and
opportunism. John Mearsheimer writes that “Putin and his compatriots have been
thinking and acting according to realist dictates, whereas their Western
counterparts have been adhering to liberal ideas about international politics.”[4]
Kenneth Waltz explains how these principles impact Russian
policy in Eastern Europe, reiterating that: “where a number of states are in balance, the skillful foreign policy of a
forward power is designed to gain an advantage without antagonizing other
states and frightening them into united action. At times in modern Europe, the benefits
of possible gains have seemed to outweigh the risks of likely losses.”[5]
The Russian calculation that it can make strategic power and
territorial gains in Eastern Europe without inciting an armed response from the
U.S. is grounded in the neorealist
assessment of bipolar relationships. Waltz writes that: “The separation of
their interests reduces the occasions for dispute and permits them, if they
wish, to leave each other alone even though each defines its security interests
largely in terms of the other.”[6]
U.S. Invasion of Iraq
 |
| Source: PBS |
Neorealists view the world as predominately anarchic,
forcing states to provide for their own security. Waltz writes that: “States
continue to coexist in an anarchic order. Self-help is the principle of action
in such an order, and the most important way in which states must help
themselves is by providing for their own security.”[7]
Within this context, many U.S. security experts and
commentators felt that preemptive action against Saddam Hussein and Iraq was in
the west’s security interests. John Bolton, former U.S. ambassador to the
United Nations, wrote in 2013 that “The fact is that Saddam Hussein, with or
without actual WMD, was a strategic threat to peace and security in the Middle
East and globally.”[8]
Ambassador Bolton and others reflect a key neorealist tenant
that “overreaction is the lesser evil because at worst it costs only money for
unnecessary arms and possibly the fighting of limited wars.”[9]
Lessons from Neorealist Theory
The neorealist explanations for two major conflicts
initiated by the world powers reflects its fundamental approach to the
international system: “States in an anarchic order must provide for their own
security, and threats or seeming threats to their security abound.”[10]
[1] Statement
of President John F. Kennedy to the UN General Assembly, September 25, 1961
(Accessed online 31 January 2015, http://www.state.gov/p/io/potusunga/207241.htm
[2] Waltz,
Kenneth N. "The origins of war in neorealist theory." Journal of
Interdisciplinary History (1988): 615-628.
[3]
John Lennon, “Imagine”, 11 October 1971
[4] Michael
McFaul, “Faulty Powers: Who Started the Ukraine Crisis?” Foreign Affairs, December 2014 (Accessed online 31 January 2015, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/142260/michael-mcfaul-stephen-sestanovich-john-j-mearsheimer/faulty-powers)
[5] Waltz,
Kenneth N. "The origins of war in neorealist theory." Journal of
Interdisciplinary History (1988): 622
[6] Ibid., 624
[7] Ibid., 624
[8] John
Bolton, “Overthrowing Saddam Hussein was the right move,” The Guardian, 26
February 2013 (Accessed online 31 January 2015 http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/feb/26/iraq-war-was-justified)
[9] Waltz,
Kenneth N. "The origins of war in neorealist theory." Journal of
Interdisciplinary History (1988): 623
[10] Ibid., 619
We like to think that war is avoidable in every situation, and that there is a more peaceful alternative than a resort to arms. However, from a realist perspective, that is simply not possible. A stark contrast to liberal ideology! Tiptoeing on the fence is negotiation; which is liberal enough to pursue peace, and realistic enough to predict war. I think that it is this very nature of negotiation, that appeals to most international actors. Thanks for sharing!
ReplyDeleteThis is a good analysis but I am not too sure that the 2003 Iraq War is a great example here. Many prominent realist IR theorists including John Mearsheimer (who you quote above) and Stephen Walt (Chair of Political Science at Havard and Foreign Policy blogger) were against the war because it did not seem to fit into realist principles.
ReplyDeleteBen ~ you use some interesting examples to flesh out neorealist theory in practice. I think the analysis begins to get a bit thorny at times because all we, as observers, can see is the actions undertaken by states; we may not necessarily understand all of the motives behind those actions. All interests are not immediately visible. I would speculate that this is the case for the 2003 Iraq War - certainly at the time, and perhaps even now, we may not know the full set of reasons that prompted the US to act the way it did. It might be an interesting exercise to further examine "interest" in the invasion from a more multifaceted perspective: not just national security interests, but economic and domestic political considerations may have been at stake as well.
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